We are using the uniquely well studied emergence of a disease in a novel host as a model for more broadly understanding the ecological factors that affect how a disease will affect populations of their host. We use "citizen science" monitoring of disease in the wild, intensive field studies around Ithaca, and controlled laboratory experiments to inform generalizable mathematical models of host - disease dynamics.

This work was started when a bacterial pathogen of poultry jumped hosts, to start causing disease in a wild song bird, the House Finch. House Finch populations in eastern North America declined by over 50 percent and have since then never recovered. Because we have studied the emergence of this disease since almost the start of the epidemic, we have a unique opportunity to study the process by which new diseases emerge, and the factors that control disease impact. This information is broadly relevant, not just for an understanding of wildlife disease, but also for diseases that can directly affect humans and associated domestic animals.

Our response to the emergence of the novel disease has been to start a multi-institution collaborative research program involving experts in the disease organism, mathematical modeling of disease dynamics, statistical analysis of data from disease and bird monitoring, and veterinarians to understand all facets of the disease process, from evolution of the House Finches and bacteria through to long-term impacts of the disease on its host. This work also involves the collaboration with hundreds of members of the general public, who provide the information needed to monitoring the spread and prevalence of the disease across the United States and Canada.

To date, our research has resulted in a better understanding of the process of disease emergence, the role of seasonally-varying conditions on timing and impact of disease outbreaks, and the role of host genetic diversity and host population genetic bottlenecking on the the impacts of disease.

ecology of infectious diseases